Turf Shifts In Culture Wars As Support For Gay Marriage Rises
by MARA LIASSON
October 20, 2014 4:23 AM ET
People
hold signs, including some reading "America is ready for marriage," at a
same-sex marriage victory celebration on October 6 in Salt Lake City,
Utah. America may be ready, but Republicans aren't: Rising popular
support for same-sex marriage is posing a problem for GOP.
When social norms change, sometimes they change so fast it's hard to keep up.
Only
10 years ago, ballot initiatives opposing gay marriage were helping
Republicans win elections. But two weeks ago, when the Supreme Court
effectively cleared the way for legal same-sex marriage, the response
from Republican leaders was deafening silence.
They were so quiet some wondered whether the culture wars had finally ended with a Republican defeat.
Gary Bauer, a longtime social conservative activist, thinks that's nonsense.
"The
idea that the culture wars are over is absurd," he says. "A war over
the culture and the meaning of American liberty will continue to be a
major factor in the American public debate."
Other
social conservative leaders agree with Bauer. Former presidential
candidate Mike Huckabee said if the Republicans don't fight against gay
marriage, he'd become an independent. Senator Ted Cruz promised to
introduce a constitutional amendment allowing states to ban gay
marriage.
But
those views are in the minority. While polls show opinion on some
social issues, like abortion, are relatively stable, public opinion on
gay marriage has changed — and changed fast.
A
majority of Americans now accept gay marriage, says Peter Levine, a
political scientist at Tufts University. He calls that "a profound
generational change."
"In
the long run everyone's going to be for gay marriage," he says, "but in
the short term Republicans have a problem, which translates into a
problem of perceived intolerance."
Conservative
views on social issues, including gay marriage, are often called the
third leg of the Republican stool, alongside small government and strong
defense. So the party will have to adapt without alienating an
important part of its voting coalition, says Ari Fleischer, former Bush
White House press secretary.
"For
Republicans, the challenge is if they take the issue uniquely as gay
marriage head-on, many Republicans aren't going to want to change, who
are older voters," Fleischer says. "Younger Republicans are willing to
change on that issue — they already have changed."
The problem for the GOP is that right now there aren't enoughyoung
Republicans. Young people vote overwhelmingly for Democrats in national
elections, and social issues are one of the main reasons.
Kirsten
Kukowski is the press secretary for the Republican National Committee,
which is trying to help Republican candidates bridge the gap between the
party's base and changing public attitudes.
"For
a long time we came across as maybe not as sensitive and not as
compassionate on these issues," she says. "And I think a couple of years
ago — right after the 2010 presidential election — for people in the
RNC specifically, our strategists, a lot of our pollsters and a lot of
the people around us in these campaigns, we sat down at the table and
said, 'How do we change how we talk to voters?' "
Republicans
are already changing. This year, most Republican candidates in tight
races barely mention social issues on the stump. Others have moved to
the center, disavowing their previous support for "personhood"
amendments which would give constitutional rights to embryos. A handful
of Republican senate candidates have joined Planned Parenthood in
supporting the idea of over-the-counter birth control.
In
addition to RNC operatives, conservative intellectuals are also
grappling with this problem. Henry Olsen is with the Ethics & Public
Policy Center.
"There's
a group of us who are basically conservative but think that mainstream
conservatism needs to rethink some of its strategic approaches and
policy emphases," he says. "And we've been called reformicons, and we're
fine with that."
Olsen and his fellow reformicons say social issues like gay marriage have to be navigated carefully — very carefully.
"No
Republican candidate can be nominated that openly supports same-sex
marriage. That doesn't mean that you need to talk about it in a way that
implies disapproval or condemnation of gay and lesbian people. It
certainly does not mean that you have to deny certain sorts of federal
benefits that presumably could be extended to people without the formal
extension of marriage," he says. "That sort of thing is the rhetoric of
compassion and inclusion that a Republican candidate to win the
presidency ought to pursue."
Gay
marriage is where opinion is changing the fastest, but the public is
also evolving on other issues, like immigration and climate change. The
RNC's Kirsten Kukowski says the party will debate all of this in the
2016 primary campaign.
"We're
going to have a very interesting conversation in the next couple of
months," she says. "And having been here through the last presidential
[election] and then through the midterms, this is going to be a very
important conversation for Americans to have, and for us to have as a
party."
It's clear where the public is going on issues like gay marriage — but not so clear where the Republican Party will end up.
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