Exposing Real Friends and Enemies of Israel in the Arab World
The Israeli Institute for National Security Studies has just issued its 275 page report
entitled “Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017”. This Israeli research
institute and think tank is headed by former IDF Military Intelligence
Chief, General (ret.) Amos Yadlin. Its analysis offers a valuable
insight into the how the Israeli intelligence and security community
view and prioritize developments regionally and globally, and in the
process, also exposes who are the real friends and enemies of Israel in
the Arab world.
Following
are a small sampling of the findings and the recommendations (labelled
“challenges and responses”) contained in the report’s summarized
conclusion:
*
“Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan have withstood the
tumult in the Arab world. The Cairo and Amman embassies in Tel Aviv are
an expression of a stable element in the regional system, and constitute
an important part of Israel’s strategic position.” Page 252
*
“The change in Saudi policy has expanded Riyadh’s base of shared
interests with Israel, thereby facilitating closer ties between the two
countries and possibly encouraging Saudi Arabia to make those ties
public.” Page 252
*
“From Israel’s standpoint, the non-state actors in the region are
deeply involved in fighting for their existence, making them less able
to concentrate on the struggle against Israel mandated by their
ideology. The Islamic State branch that controls territory bordering
Israel in the Golan Heights is for the most part inactive against
Israel.” Page 249
*
“Although Hezbollah continues its military buildup and poses a
significant strategic threat to Israel, and despite the substantial
resources invested by Hamas in rebuilding its military force, Israel’s
overall strategic position gives it unprecedented freedom of action to
initiate military operations aimed at preserving its security interests
and restricting the increase in quality of its enemies’ military
buildup.” page 250
*
“The complete standstill in the political process and the deterioration
of security in the Palestinian arena continued in 2016, and Israel
continues to pay a price in lives, and in its economy, international
standing, and internal political arena.” Page 253
*
“Israel’s image in Western countries continues to decline, a trend that
enhances the ability of hostile groups to engage in actions aimed at
depriving Israel of moral and political legitimacy and launch boycotts
in various areas. Indeed, the international campaign to delegitimize
Israel continues, as reflected in the BDS movement. Israel’s current
right wing government has contributed to this deterioration.” page 254
*
“… the worst scenario is a conflict with Hezbollah on the border with
Lebanon. Conflicts in the Gaza Strip will probably be limited, and
Israel is well equipped to deal with them.” Page 255
The Recommendations:
–
“Even if there does not appear to be a partner on the Palestinian side
for reaching or implementing an agreement, Israel has an important
interest in halting the gradual drift toward an irreversible one-state
situation, and instead, progressing toward a two-state situation that
ends Israel’s rule over Palestinians, while carefully maintaining and
even improving Israel’s security.” Page 257
–
“Israel must prepare measures against Lebanon’s national infrastructure
without distinguishing it from Hezbollah, and develop capabilities for a
ground campaign…” Page 259
–
“Against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, military preparation should aim to
shorten the duration of the next campaign and anticipate the tactical
and systemic surprises that will be encountered.” Page 259
–
“Both arenas, against Hamas and Hezbollah, should be discussed with the
Trump administration, with understandings reached about Israel’s red
lines, and about what will be considered a legitimate policy on the use
of force against these groups in the event of another military
conflict.” Page 259
–
“The dialogue between Israel and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states
indicates that an effective process with the Palestinians, even if it
does not include negotiations for a permanent settlement ending in a
full agreement, will make a breakthrough in relations with the Gulf
states possible, including making these relations public.” page 260
–
“Israel can expect conflicts in both the military sphere and in soft
power areas – economics, diplomacy, communications, the social networks,
and the courts (lawfare)…It is therefore necessary for Israel to devise
organizational frameworks, strategies, and multidimensional,
coordinated methods to handle the challenges facing it.” Page 260
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