US Army report calls for ‘military support’ of Israeli energy grab
US military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the Middle East’s energy architecture around Israel
A
new report by the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute
emphasizes the need for “US security and military support” to its key
allies in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel, over access to
recent vast discoveries of regional oil and gas.
The Army study,
released earlier in December 2014, concludes that extensive US military
involvement “may prove essential in managing possible future conflict”
in case of “an eruption of natural resource conflict in the East
Mediterranean,” due to huge gas discoveries in recent years.
Visible
US engagement is also necessary to ward off the regional encroachment
of “emerging powers and potential new peace brokers such as Russia -
which already entertains a strong interest in East Mediterranean gas
developments - and notably China.”
Fossil fuel bonanza in the Levant
Since
2000, the Levant basin - an area encompassing the offshore territories
of Israel, Palestine, Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon - has
been estimated to hold as much as 1.7 bn barrels of oil and up to 122
trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. As much of the region’s
potential resources remain undiscovered, geologists believe this could
be just a third of the total quantities of fossil fuels in the Levant.
The
new US Army report argues that these hydrocarbon discoveries are of
“tremendous economic and geostrategic significance,” not just for its
allies, but for the United States itself. Israel especially stands to
“gain considerably from their newly discovered gas wealth” in terms of
cost-effective energy for domestic consumption and revenues from gas
exports.
But
while the discoveries offer the prospect for closer regional
cooperation, they also raise “the potential for conflict over these
valuable resources.” The potential for resource conflicts over oil and
gas relates directly to intractable border conflicts between Israel, the
Palestinians, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the unresolved Cypriot
question between Greece and Turkey. US interests are to minimise the
risk of conflict between its core allies, while maximising their
capacity to exploit these resources.
“Israel,
Cyprus, and Turkey are key strategic US allies,” the report says.
“Neighbouring Egypt, Syria and Lebanon play important roles from the
European and US perspective, both as direct neighbours to Israel and the
Palestinian Territories as well as because of their strategically
important location as the geographic interconnection between Europe,
North Africa, and the Middle East.”
The
new US Army report is authored by Mohammed al-Katiri and Laura
al-Katiri. Mohammed al-Katiri was previously research director at the UK
Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Advanced Research and Assessment Group
(ARAG), but now heads up two private intelligence consultancies, MENA Insight and the Conflict Studies Research Centre (CSRC), both of which provide services to government and commercial sectors, including the oil and gas industry.
The
Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) which published the report, calls
itself an Army “think factory” for “commanders and civilian leaders.”
SSI uses independent analysis to help “develop policy recommendations”
for the US Army on national security and to “influence policy debate”
across the military.
Advancing Israel’s energy empire
The
SSI report on the risk of Middle East resource conflicts notes that
Israel’s massive offshore gas discoveries “have yet to translate into
proven gas reserves,” but that it’s total of 9.48 tcf of proven and 30
tcf estimated reserves, positions Israel “ahead of all East
Mediterranean countries in terms of gas reserves and resource
prospectivity.”
The
Army report also reveals that Syria could hold significant offshore oil
and gas potential. In 2007, before the outbreak of hostilities,
President Bashar al-Assad launched a first bidding round to secure
investment into new exploration efforts, and another in 2012 that was
cancelled due to deteriorating security conditions.
“Once
the Syria conflict is resolved, prospects for Syrian offshore
production - provided commercial resources are found - are high,”
observes the report. Potential oil and gas resources can be developed
“relatively smoothly once the political situation allows for any new
exploration efforts in its offshore territories.”
The
report also mentions significant gas finds in the offshore territories
of Lebanon and Palestine, including the Gaza Marine, which holds over 1
tcf – production of which has been “obstruction by Israel over concerns
regarding the flow of revenues to Palestinian stakeholders.” But in
addition to the Gaza Marine, “Palestinian offshore territories near Gaza
are believed to hold substantial hydrocarbon potential,” whose total
quantities are still unknown because a lack of exploration there:
“Both
Israel and Cyprus are key US allies and pillars of US foreign policy in
the region: Israel, with its long history of close political ties with
the United States, historically has stood at the heart of American
efforts to secure regional peace; while Cyprus forms the most eastern
part of Europe and is an important strategic location for both US and
British military interests.”
Regional war
The
region faces four main potential arcs of conflict. Firstly, in
Israel-Palestine, the US Army study warns that “the presence of valuable
natural resources in disputed territory may further feed the conflict.”
Secondly,
rival claims between Israel and Lebanon over maritime boundaries could
“complicate” the development of regional offshore hydrocarbon resources
and result in military confrontation.
Thirdly,
that risk has, in turn, delayed efforts to define Cypriot-Israeli and
Cypriot-Lebanese exclusive economic maritime zones.
Fourthly,
in 2013 Israel granted oil exploration licenses in the Syrian-claimed
Golan Heights, spelling “potential for another armed conflict between
the two parties should substantial hydrocarbon resources be discovered.”
According to a report to the UN Security Council in early December,
Israel has been in regular contact with Syrian rebels, including Islamic State fighters,
raising the question of Israel’s role in supporting anti-Assad
extremists to cement its control of Golan’s potential fossil fuel
resources.
The US Army study highlights a real risk that tensions across these flashpoints could escalate into a wider regional conflict:
“In
the case of an armed conflict between Israel and Lebanon, the security
of the wider Levant region could once again be at stake, with a possible
escalation of the conflict into neighbouring Syria and the Palestinian
Territories, as well as (with historical precedents) Jordan and Egypt.
In combination, the pre-existing political problems in all of these
countries – Syria destabilizing into de facto civil war, Egypt in the
midst of political instability, the Palestinians and Lebanese lacking
stable political cores – the potential for a new, escalating regional
war is a threatening scenario indeed.”
War for peace (for gas)
To
stave off this disturbing prospect, the US report recommends that
Israel and other Levant gas hubs like Lebanon and Cyprus play a key role
in exporting Eastern Mediterranean gas to their Arab neighbours, such
as Egypt, Turkey and Jordan, given that Middle East demand for gas is
projected to rise dramatically in coming decades.
Further,
the report highlights the possibility of Israel piping gas to Turkey,
where it can be exported to European markets, making Turkey a regional
gas transhipment hub. This would allow both Turkey and Europe to wean
off their Russian gas dependence, and integrate instead into a
“peaceful” US-Israeli dominated regional energy architecture.
As
has been confirmed by Quartet Middle East envoy Tony Blair’s energy
advisor, Ariel Ezrahi, Gaza’s offshore gas resources are seen as a potential bridge to
overcome popular Arab public opposition to gas deals with Israel.
“Israeli as well as Palestinian offshore hydrocarbon resources could
play a significant role in facilitating mutual trust and the willingness
to cooperate,” the US Army study suggests, “including between Israel
and a few of its other Arab neighbours, Jordan and Egypt.”
But
ultimately this architecture cannot be installed without extensive US
intervention of some kind. “US diplomatic and military support has a
pivotal role to play in the East Mediterranean’s complex geopolitical
landscape, and its importance will only grow as the value of the natural
resources at stake increases,” concludes the Army report:
“US
security and military support for its main allies in the case of an
eruption of natural resource conflict in the East Mediterranean may
prove essential in managing possible future conflict.”
Diplomatically,
the US could play a significant role in mediating between the various
parties to facilitate successful oil and gas development projects across
the East Mediterranean, not just for “Israel’s sake,” but also to
shore-up allies like Jordan and Egypt with “low-cost Israeli gas,”
contributing to regional economic and thus political stability:
“US
support - diplomatic and, where necessary, military - can form a
potentially powerful element in the safeguarding of these long-term
economic benefits, at little cost in relative terms.”
If
regional tensions escalate though, the report warns that “the United
States also holds an important military position that could have an
impact in securing the East Mediterranean,” including “military training
and equipment support” to defend Cyprus and Israel from attacks on
“their energy infrastructure and gas developments.”
This
Orwellian document thus reveals that in the name of maintaining
regional peace, a new Great Game is at play. To counter Russian and
Chinese influence while cementing influence over its Arab allies, US
military strategists are contemplating the threat of war to redraw the
Middle East’s energy architecture around Israel.
- Nafeez Ahmed PhD, is an investigative journalist, international security scholar and bestselling author who tracks what he calls the 'crisis of civilization.'
He is a winner of the Project Censored Award for Outstanding
Investigative Journalism for his Guardian reporting on the intersection
of global ecological, energy and economic crises with regional
geopolitics and conflicts. He has also written for The
Independent, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The Scotsman, Foreign
Policy, The Atlantic, Quartz, Prospect, New Statesman, Le Monde
diplomatique, New Internationalist. His work on the root causes and
covert operations linked to international terrorism officially
contributed to the 9/11 Commission and the 7/7 Coroner’s Inquest.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
Photo: An
Egyptian man looks at flames rising from a pipeline that delivers gas
to Israel and Jordan after it was hit by an explosion some 40 kilometres
(25 miles) west of the town of Al-Arish in the north of the Sinai
peninsula, early on 10 November, 2011 (AFP)
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