Open leadership row at Vietnam’s ruling party congress
By John Roberts and Peter Symonds
3 February 2016
The
ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) concluded its 12th national
congress last week by retaining Nguyen Phu Trong as general secretary
after outmanoeuvring his rival Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in an
unusually public faction fight for the top post.
The
sharp divisions in the CPV leadership reflect the rising geopolitical
tensions throughout the region as a result of the US “pivot to Asia” and
military build-up directed against China. The Obama administration has
deliberately inflamed longstanding maritime disputes between China and
its neighbours, including Vietnam, in a bid to isolate Beijing.
Dung
is widely regarded as closer to Washington and more determined to ram
through pro-market restructuring, including the privatisation of
state-owned enterprises (SOEs). He was in the forefront of the
condemnation of China in May 2014 for placing an oil rig in contested
waters in the South China Sea and whipping up a xenophobic campaign that
led to violent anti-Chinese riots.
The
infighting carried into the congress itself when Dung’s supporters
nominated him for the party’s central committee after he was left off
the new leadership list prepared by the outgoing Politburo. If elected
to the central committee, Dung could have stood for the top job.
However, facing challenges to the legitimacy of the manoeuvre, Dung
finally turned down the nomination and will go into retirement after he
steps down as prime minister.
The
consolidation of Trong as general secretary will not result in any
sharp shift in economic or foreign policy. For the past three decades,
all factions of the Stalinist leadership have been united implementing doi moi, or the integration of Vietnam into world capitalism as a cheap labour platform for foreign investors.
Last
week deputy foreign minister Le Hoai Trung immediately sought to
reassure foreign investors that the new leadership would continue
“refining and modernising the financial and banking sector,” press ahead
with privatisation and upgrade the country’s infrastructure. In his
speech, general secretary Trong declared that the “private sector is an
important engine of the economy.” The 2016–2020 economic plan ratified
by the congress called for “favourable conditions” to support the
private sector, including “equal access” to credit, land and other
resources.
Significantly Trong identified the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a key economic driver, declaring that 30 years ofdoi moi had
positioned the country to “seize opportunities affected by the TPP for
rapid and sustainable development.” The US-led TPP is regarded by
Washington as the means to ensure, in Obama’s words, that the US, not
China, sets the economic rules for the 21st Century.
While
the regime is clearly hoping that the TPP will open up new trade and
investment opportunities, the economic pact also dictates sweeping
economic restructuring measures including the sale of SOEs and the
further opening up of the economy to foreign investors. The
“equitisation” of SOEs, which constitute a third of GDP, is already
slower than planned, amid concerns that it could lead to a huge loss of
jobs and social unrest.
Vietnam
is currently one of the fastest growing economies in the world, with a
record $14.5 billion in foreign investment and GDP growth of 6.7 percent
in 2015. However,Bloomberg Business noted:
“A cloud over the country’s economic picture is a trade deficit,
widening public debt and the government’s failure to meet its goal to
privatise 289 state companies last year.”
As
a result, the government will be compelled to press ahead with the
pro-market agenda demanded by international finance capital. As in the
past, it will not hesitate to use police-state measures against any
resistance by workers and peasants.
In
foreign policy, the government will also continue its balancing act
between the United States and China, with an ever-more pronounced shift
towards Washington. In 2015 China was the country’s largest trading
partner, but the US was the largest destination of exports. Hanoi is
hoping that the TPP will provide greater access to the American garment
market at the expense of rivals like China and Bangladesh.
The
2014 clash with China over the oil rig marked a turning point in
relations. The previous year Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signed an
agreement with Vietnam to establish a working party to discuss the joint
exploitation of oil, gas and fish stocks in the Gulf of Tonkin. That
deal, however, was rendered a dead letter by the bitter dispute the
following May.
In
December 2014, Vietnam formally supported the legal case initiated by
the Philippines in the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague to
challenge China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Dung went
much further in stating Vietnam should take its own case against China
to the court.
At
the same time, Vietnam has been strengthening military ties with the
US. Last June, US Secretary of State Ashton Carter signed a Joint Vision
Statement with Hanoi that included US training for Vietnamese troops to
operate as UN peacekeepers and foreshadowed the co-production of
weapons and defence supplies. In October 2014, Washington lifted its ban
on the sale of lethal weaponry to Vietnam.
Carter
also pledged to provide $18 million to Vietnam to facilitate the
purchase of two US patrol boats. He pointedly made this announcement
after touring the Vietnamese coast guard vessel that, according to
Hanoi, had been rammed by a Chinese navy ship during the confrontations
over the oil rig.
While
General Secretary Trong may be more cautious than his rival Dung about a
whole-hearted embrace of US imperialism, his trip to Washington last
July indicates his support for growing ties. He was welcomed in the
White House by Obama, who normally hosts only presidents and prime
ministers rather than party leaders, for discussions on the TPP and
South China Sea disputes. In 2015, eight of the 16 Politburo members,
including National Assembly Chairman Nguyen Sinh Hung and Public
Security Minister Tran Dai Quang visited Washington for talks with
high-level US officials.
At
the same time, Hanoi is attempting to maintain relations with China.
Last December, National Assembly Chairman Nguyen Sinh Hung, deputy
chairman Huynh Ngoc Son and other central committee members visited
Beijing for five days of talks with senior Chinese leaders, including
President Xi Jinping.
Relations
with China, however, remain tense. Last month, in the lead-up to the
Congress, Vietnam issued sharp protests against several Chinese actions
in the South China Sea. In early January, Hanoi joined the US, Japan and
the Philippines in a chorus of condemnation over the landing of a
Chinese civilian aircraft on Fiery Cross Reef, a Chinese-administered
islet. On January 20, the government protested over the presence in
disputed waters of the Chinese oil rig that was involved in the 2014
clashes.
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