The Impending Shiite Leadership Crisis Baghdad Doesn't See Coming
One
of the effects of the rise of the Islamic State (IS) has been the
emergence of Qasem Soleimani, head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps' (IRGC) Quds Force, as the foremost military commander in Iraq.
This has been particularly evident in the absence of the US military and
with the establishment of the Popular Mobilization Units.
However,
while his military clout has expanded, Soleimani's political influence
appears to be increasingly checked. Indeed, today, the most powerful
Iranian in Iraq is arguably Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. While in the
making for years, this trajectory has accelerated following IS' blitz
in northern Iraq last summer. The fall of Mosul and increasing tensions
with the Kurdistan Regional Government and Sunni leaders did not
singlehandedly end former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's rule.
Rather, it was the disapproval of the grand ayatollah. Neither
Soleimani's personal backing nor the highest number of votes for his
bloc and for his person could shield Maliki from Najaf.
Developments
over the past year, including the ascendance of current Iraqi Prime
Minister Haider al-Abadi, also divulge another key aspect of Iranian
influence in Iraq -- the impact of the rise of moderates in Tehran.
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