Here is What Turkey’s Erdogan Fears Most
As Erdogan attempts to use the
military to resolve a policy course in Syria previously accomplished
through intelligence agencies, here is the biggest issue he may
encounter, and it’s not Putin.
Russia’s Putin stepped
up criticism of Turkey’s leadership on Wednesday, saying that it was
encouraging the Islamization of Turkish society.
Although Islamization in Turkey usually refers to such measures
as limits on alcohol sales, it is actually at the core of Erdogan’s
conflicts with the military and civil society, the roots of which go
into the foundation of modern secularist Turkey by Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk. Critics have also accused Erdogan of wishing to revive the
territorial and diplomatic accomplishments of the Ottoman Empire.
“The
problem [behind Russia’s travel warning] is not the tragedy we faced
yesterday, the problem is much deeper. We observe, and not just us,
but the entire world, that today’ leadership has in a considerable
number of years conducted a targeted internal policy to support and
Islamize their country,” Putin said.
Military Watchmen
Erdogan has been careful to purge the military
of secularist officers who may pose a threat to his rule. Turkey’s
military has historically been a vanguard for protecting the country’s
secular constitution, formed under the principles laid out by the
country’s modern founder Mustafa Kemal.
The constitution has been watered down several times, most recently
in 1982, becoming increasingly tolerant of Islamist political movements
and reducing the military’s influence in government affairs. Erdogan’s
Justice and Development Party (AKP) seeks to amend the existing
constitution or replace it with a new one.
The Turkish military has traditionally repelled such attempts
by warning civil rulers against moves to change the constitution, which
led the country into military rule. Such moves are often preceded with
“memorandum” warnings from the military against rulers.
“In Turkey
there is a marriage between Islam and democracy. The child of this union
is secularism. Sometimes the child becomes ill, and the Turkish army is
the doctor who saves it. Depending on the disease’s severity we
administer the right medication to cure the child,” a 1997 military
memorandum authored by General Cevik Bir said.
Erdogan has been careful to avoid such a scenario, purging the
military of hundreds of officers, most famously in 2013, when it
arrested 275 people, including senior generals for a conspiracy
to overthrow the government.
Former Associates
Erdogan’s foray into Syria also serves to strengthen his rule,
by both abandoning Turkey’s Western outlook and gaining power over the
military. While Turkey previously avoided strong ties with the Middle
East, Erdogan ended this policy, most significantly by first aiding
Syria’s Bashar Assad, and then opposing him after Syria’s internal
conflict began in 2011.
Turkey’s participation in the conflict appears to have been done
without the army’s knowledge. In a May 2015 arms-trafficking incident,
17 soldiers were arrested for stopping an arms shipment heading to Syria
by the country’s MIT intelligence agency.
Erdogan has blamed the arrested
officers for being part of a “parallel state” set up by preacher
Fethllah Gulen, who initially supported Erdogan, but parted ways
with him in 2013. Erdogan and Gulen have major disagreements, as Gulen
came out strongly against Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian crisis.
Triggering a crisis by shooting down a Russian plane could then help
Erdogan secure support from the military, with any opposition to his
rule seen as high treason to the country’s interests rather than the
interests of Erdogan alone.
Moderate Opposition
In addition to the military, Erdogan has pursued a crackdown
on opposition to his policy courses, labeled as Islamization and
Neo-Ottomanism by critics.
Most recently, the leader of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic
Party (HDP) narrowly escaped assassination on Monday, one day before the
Russian plane was shot down.The party opposes Erdogan’s policies
in Syria, particularly its operations against Kurds.
Erdogan also initiated a crackdown on his opponents following the
elections, which secured an all-but absolute majority, allowing the
party to form its own government but not change the constitution.
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