Syrian Kurds Victory Over ISIL Could Stir Up Problems

Syrian Kurds Victory Over ISIL Could Stir Up Problems
AKCAKALE, Turkey -- Abu Salah Mohammad Isam, 22, grins as he strokes his freshly trimmed goatee, enjoying his newfound freedom to shave after Islamic State militants were driven out of his hometown.
For the past year, the Islamic State controlled the Syrian border city of Tal Abyad and enforced strict rules on appearance: full veils for women and full beards for men. Those rules were scrapped last week, when Syrian Kurdish forces known as the YPG seized the town.
Tuesday, the YPG and its allies pushed the Islamic State from the town of Ain Issa, putting the Kurdish-led forces within 30 miles of the militant group's de facto capital of Raqqa in Syria.
Concerns among residents about the YPG reveal the complexity of Syria's four-year civil war, as well as the difficult terrain the White House must navigate as it scrambles to find an effective strategy to fight the Islamic State, also known as ISIL or ISIS.
"I am happy that they are gone, but I don't know if things will be better under the YPG," said Isam, one of more than 23,000 Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey in recent weeks to escape the fighting in Tal Abyad. "I didn't enjoy living under the Islamic State, but I wasn't afraid because there was no trouble as long as you followed the rules. With the Kurds, there is only uncertainty."
That sentiment was common among a number of Syrians interviewed in the Turkish border town of Akcakale, where many said they were seeking refuge not only from Islamic State militants but also from the YPG and U.S.-led coalition airstrikes.
This year, the YPG and its Syrian rebel allies, with help from the air campaign, ousted the Islamic State from Kobani on the Syrian border before taking control of Tal Abyad last week. The latest victory deprives the Islamic State of a critical route for smuggling weapons, supplies and fighters into Syria.
"It is an indication that when our coalition can back capable, effective, local fighters on the ground, that we can make important progress against ISIL," White House spokesman Josh Earnest said last week, describing the combination fighting force as a "recipe for success."
There are fears it could also be a recipe for exacerbating ethnic tensions between Syrian Kurds and their Arab neighbors. Several hundred refugees returned to Tal Abyad on Monday when the Turkish-Syrian border reopened, but residents such as Omar Abu Yassin, 42, a farmer, said they were afraid to go home.
"The YPG only cares about making this area safe for the Kurds, and they think that we are supporters of Daesh because we lived under their rule," he said, using the Arabic name for the Islamic State. "Before the war, we lived in peace with our neighbors. But if I go back now, who knows what will happen?"
Several Tal Abyad residents claimed to have been mistreated by the YPG forces, though they declined to comment on the record. Turkey last week suggested there were signs of possible ethnic cleansing in areas captured by the Kurds, but the YPG strongly denied those allegations.
Michael Stephens, director of the Royal United Services Institute in Qatar, said, "It's an extremely fragile situation because you're dealing with a multiethnic region where ethnic and social tensions are strained by the Kurds' rapid expansion. The reality is that economy, security and trade are now completely in the hands of the Kurds."
Neighboring Turkey is alarmed. The NATO ally has been at war with its own Kurdish insurgents for more than three decades and fears the YPG's battlefield success could fuel separatism at home.
That's placed Washington in a difficult position. The Kurds are reliable partners in the fight against the Islamic State, but Washington's support for the Kurds could antagonize Turkey, a key ally, while indirectly boosting Kurdish ambitions for self-determination.
"Syrian Kurdistan is a reality on the ground -- there's no going back," Stephens said. "What makes Tal Abyad so important is it establishes the fact that Syria as a country is finished. It's not quite a death knell, but Syria has permanently changed and will never go back to the way it was before 2011."
Aron Lund, a Syria expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Syrian Kurds have a vested interest in keeping ethnic tensions and their separatist ambitions in check.
"Certainly they want to rule their own areas, but they aren't about to declare that part of Syria as an independent state, because that would be political suicide," Lund said. "This is a group that could conceivably negotiate what the future of Syria will look like. They need to maintain legitimacy and political cover in order to hold their areas, which means avoiding an all-out Arab-Kurdish conflict, while continuing to attack the Islamic State to maintain U.S. political support."
Tal Abyad and the surrounding villages were once home to about 50,000 Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and Christians. Syrian government forces controlled the area until the Free Syrian Army (FSA) drove them out in 2012. Last year, Islamic State militants raised their black flag over Tal Abyad, where it remained until last week, when the Kurds hoisted the triangular yellow flag of the YPG above the city.
The political instability has left residents wary of change.
"There is no difference between the regime, FSA, ISIS or the Kurds," said Abdul Nasser Abraham, 38, a Syrian day laborer who fled to Turkey with his wife and two children. "They fight over power, religion and democracy, while we can't even support our children or put food on the table. I will return to Tal Abyad when our dignity is restored and not before."