Census Benchmark for White Americans: More Deaths Than Births
By SAM ROBERTS
Deaths exceeded births among non-Hispanic white Americans for the first
time in at least a century, according to new census data, a benchmark
that heralds profound demographic change.
The disparity was tiny — only about 12,000 — and was more than made up
by a gain of 188,000 as a result of immigration from abroad. But the
decrease for the year ending July 1, 2012, coupled with the fact that a
majority of births in the United States are now to Hispanic, black and
Asian mothers, is further evidence that white Americans will become a
minority nationwide within about three decades.
Over all, the number of non-Hispanic white Americans is expected to begin declining by the end of this decade.
“These new census estimates are an early signal alerting us to the
impending decline in the white population that will characterize most of
the 21st century,” said William H. Frey, a demographer with the
Brookings Institution.
The transition will mean that “today’s racial and ethnic minorities will
no longer be dependent on older whites for their economic well-being,”
Dr. Frey said. In fact, the situation may be reversed. “It makes more
vivid than ever the fact that we will be reliant on younger minorities
and immigrants for our future demographic and economic growth,” he said.
The viability of programs like Social Security and Medicare, Dr. Frey
said, “will be reliant on the success of waves of young Hispanics,
Asians and blacks who will become the bulwark of our labor force.” The
issues of minorities, he added, “will hold greater sway than ever
before.”
In 2010, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, more
non-Hispanic whites died than were born in 11 states, including
California, Florida and Pennsylvania. White deaths exceeded births in a
majority of counties, including Los Angeles, the most populous.
The disparity between deaths and births in the year that ended last July
surprised experts. They expected that the aging white population would
eventually shrink, as it has done in many European countries, but not
for another decade or so.
Nationally, said Kenneth M. Johnson, the senior demographer at the
Carsey Institute, a research center based at the University of New
Hampshire, “the onset of natural decrease between 2011 and 2012 was not
anticipated.” He attributed the precipitous shift in part to the
recession, adding that “the growing number of older non-Hispanic whites,
which will accelerate rapidly as the baby boom ages, guarantees that
non-Hispanic white natural decrease will be a significant part of the
nation’s demographic future.”
Professor Johnson said there were 320,000 more births than deaths among
non-Hispanic whites in the year beginning July 2006, just before the
recession. From 2010 to 2011, the natural increase among non-Hispanic
whites had shrunk to 29,000.
Census Bureau estimates indicate that there were 1.9 million
non-Hispanic white births in the year ending July 1, 2012, compared with
2.3 million from July 2006 to 2007 during the economic boom, a 13.3
percent decline. Non-Hispanic white deaths increased only modestly
during the same period, by 1.6 percent.
The census population estimates released Thursday also affirmed that
Asians were the fastest-growing major ethnic or racial group. Their
ranks grew by 2.9 percent, or 530,000, with immigration from overseas
accounting for 60 percent of that growth.
The Hispanic population grew by 2.2 percent, or more than 1.1 million,
the most of any group, with 76 percent resulting from natural increase.
The non-Hispanic white population expanded by only 175,000, or 0.09 percent, and blacks by 559,000, or 1.3 percent.
The median age rose to 37.5 from 37.3, but the median declined in
Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, North Dakota and Oklahoma. It ranged from 64.8
in Sumter, Fla., to 23 in Madison, Idaho.
The number of centenarians nationally neared 62,000.
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